Video: GAINS Manifesto: Certainty is a False Idol

Dave Shrager (00:12):

Companies, for the most part, have spent a lot of time, again, focusing on what’s the specific outcome, what’s the specific demand, what’s the specific thing I need to do this given time? They need to shift their mindsets to a range of outcomes.

Jeff Metersky (00:24):

We’ve assumed that everything is a hundred percent accurate and it never is, and then we have to get to this respond and react.

Dave (00:31):

This is how organizations have been run for many, many years, and this is how businesses run today, and this is how supply chains run today. Even pre-COVID, this concept of getting to a finite number, getting to an exact number, getting to an specific outcome, it’s just not connected with reality.

Jeff (00:48):

And so we wait for it to happen to us and then we respond and react as efficiently and effectively as possible

Dave (00:56):

Today there’s a tremendous amount of technology and time and process investment spent reacting to what’s going on, spent trying to predict the unpredictable, but what if you predicted all sorts of outcomes or ranges and embrace that volatility as part of something you were doing each and every day?

Jeff (01:11):

And so when we embrace variability upfront in the decision-making process, we start making decisions around ranges of inputs that give us ranges of outputs. And then I don’t react and respond as long as I’m within those guardrails. My target is 95%, but I actually planned and know that I’m going to vary on the lower end of 92 and the upper end of 99, and as long as I’m inside of that, I’m in control.

Dave (01:40):

And you’re looking for the predictable outcomes and the right answers and the right approach and the right strategy, effectively looking from a range of playbooks, rather than saying exactly what I do at this exact time with this exact information

Jeff (01:51):

I now have planned what to do upfront as opposed to always respond and react.